USC Price School
October 9th 2019
History Post 1945
Keynes / Welfare / International Organisations
Globalisation
Tea Party, Trump
BREXIT, Front Nationale, AFD etc
The UK Dimension
The National Story
WW2, Great Power / Late to EU
2005 Leadership election Cameron Cons / EPP
UKIP, BREXIT, Farage
Pressure on Tories, Manifestoes
Referendum 2016
Referendum 23/06/16
Unexpected and Unprepared
52-48
Very Difficult to deliver
Customs, Single Market, Immigration
Border – Cyprus, Gibraltar, Northern Ireland (Good Friday)
Leo Varadkar 5 options
UK in EU/ United Ireland/ GB-Ireland / SM-CU / Backstop
May Leadership to June 2017
Strategic errors
02/10/2016 Conservative Conference Speech Red Lines
29/03/2017 Article 50 letter
31/03/2017 Called General Election
08/06/2017 General Election
Parliamentary Arithmetic / DUP
STATE OF PARTIES (650, 325 Majority)
09/10/19 Election 2017 Election 2015
CON 288 317 330
DUP 10 10 8
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LAB 245 262 232
NATS 39 39 59
LIB DEM 19 12 8
INDS 40 1 1
OTHERS 9 9 12
(SF, Green, Speaker, NI, UKIP)
EU demands 29/04/2017
Clear and United
Money
Citizens’ Rights
No border in Ireland
May Leadership after June 2017
Steady Decline
Negotiations
DUP
Tory Rebellion and Challenges
3 Parliamentary defeats 15/01/19 230
12/03/19 149
29/03/19 48
31/03/2019 Scheduled to leave EU
07/06/2019 Resigned as Tory leader
24/07/2019 Resigned as PM
Johnson Leadership
No resolution, Accelerated decline
24/07/2019 Becomes PM
03/09/2019 21 sacked inc Clarke, Hammond
Quantity and Quality
09/09/2019 Benn Bill passed
17-18/10/2019 European Council
19/10/2019 Final date or Extension
31/10/2019 Scheduled to leave EU
31/01/2020 New Benn Bill deadline
30/06/2020 New Extended Deadline?
The Labour Story
Incoherence and Division
Corbyn
- EU
- Anti-Semitism
- Uselessness
Tom Watson
Break-up – Andrew Fisher / Karie Murphy
McDonnell / Thornberry
Constitutional Issues
New Territory
Resignation of May
Prorogation / Queen
Role of Supreme Court
Rule of Law
Special Advisers – Dominic Cummings
Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011
Current Options
Deal
No Deal
General Election
Referendum
Election Strategy Issues
Uncertainty
Get BREXIT Done / People versus Parliament
- Is that what people want, irrespective of outcome
Salience of BREXIT
- Johnson might, like May before him, get the Brexit election he wants only to discover that it becomes about hospital parking charges, ivory sales and foxhunting.
Polling Volatility
- British Election Study - 13 per cent changed party between 1964 and 1966 Across the 2010, 2015 and 2017 elections some 49 per cent of voters backed at least two different parties.
Polling Volatility
Outcome
Extension past October 31
General Election
- When? December or February
Referendum
State of Politics – All parties
Rt Hon Charles Clarke
Click here for the full video of the speech and here for the summary video.