The UK’s BREXIT Psychodrama: where will it all lead?

USC Price School

October 9th 2019



History Post 1945

  • Keynes / Welfare / International Organisations

  • Globalisation

  • Tea Party, Trump

  • BREXIT, Front Nationale, AFD etc


The UK Dimension


The National Story

  • WW2, Great Power / Late to EU

  • 2005 Leadership election Cameron Cons / EPP

  • UKIP, BREXIT, Farage

  • Pressure on Tories, Manifestoes

  • Referendum 2016


Referendum 23/06/16


Unexpected and Unprepared

  • 52-48

  • Very Difficult to deliver

  • Customs, Single Market, Immigration


  • Border – Cyprus, Gibraltar, Northern Ireland (Good Friday)

  • Leo Varadkar 5 options

  • UK in EU/ United Ireland/ GB-Ireland / SM-CU / Backstop


May Leadership to June 2017


Strategic errors


02/10/2016 Conservative Conference Speech Red Lines

29/03/2017 Article 50 letter

31/03/2017 Called General Election

08/06/2017 General Election


Parliamentary Arithmetic / DUP


STATE OF PARTIES (650, 325 Majority)


09/10/19 Election 2017 Election 2015


CON 288 317 330

DUP 10 10 8

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LAB 245 262 232

NATS 39 39 59

LIB DEM 19 12 8

INDS 40 1 1

OTHERS 9 9 12

(SF, Green, Speaker, NI, UKIP)


EU demands 29/04/2017


Clear and United


Money

Citizens’ Rights

No border in Ireland


May Leadership after June 2017


Steady Decline


Negotiations

DUP

Tory Rebellion and Challenges

3 Parliamentary defeats 15/01/19 230

12/03/19 149

29/03/19 48


31/03/2019 Scheduled to leave EU

07/06/2019 Resigned as Tory leader

24/07/2019 Resigned as PM


Johnson Leadership


No resolution, Accelerated decline


24/07/2019 Becomes PM

03/09/2019 21 sacked inc Clarke, Hammond

Quantity and Quality

09/09/2019 Benn Bill passed

17-18/10/2019 European Council

19/10/2019 Final date or Extension

31/10/2019 Scheduled to leave EU

31/01/2020 New Benn Bill deadline

30/06/2020 New Extended Deadline?


The Labour Story


Incoherence and Division

  • Corbyn

- EU

- Anti-Semitism

- Uselessness

  • Tom Watson

  • Break-up – Andrew Fisher / Karie Murphy

  • McDonnell / Thornberry

Constitutional Issues


New Territory



Resignation of May

Prorogation / Queen

Role of Supreme Court

Rule of Law

Special Advisers – Dominic Cummings

Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011


Current Options

  • Deal

  • No Deal

  • General Election

  • Referendum


Election Strategy Issues


Uncertainty

  • Get BREXIT Done / People versus Parliament

- Is that what people want, irrespective of outcome


  • Salience of BREXIT

- Johnson might, like May before him, get the Brexit election he wants only to discover that it becomes about hospital parking charges, ivory sales and foxhunting.


  • Polling Volatility

- British Election Study - 13 per cent changed party between 1964 and 1966 Across the 2010, 2015 and 2017 elections some 49 per cent of voters backed at least two different parties. 


Polling Volatility

Outcome

  • Extension past October 31

  • General Election

- When? December or February

  • Referendum

  • State of Politics – All parties


Rt Hon Charles Clarke

Click here for the full video of the speech and here for the summary video.


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